
The global economy is expected to have shrunk by 3.5 per
cent in 2020, primarily due to the shock caused by the
COVID-19 pandemic. While some areas of the economy
continue to be depressed, others have weathered the
crisis relatively well. The sectors most negatively affected
by the shock have been those dependent on in-person
spending and sectors dependent on international travel
and tourism. In contrast, some of the sectors that have
shown resilience – or even gained from the crisis – have
been areas of the economy linked to manufacturing and
the digital economy, such as the technology and online
retail sectors. Going forward, much will depend on the
pace of the rollout of vaccines and the effectiveness of
coordinated monetary and fiscal policy responses.
Following the setbacks of 2020, the Nordics are on track
towards recovery. While the second wave of the pandemic
is still hindering the recovery, vaccines and the summer
are expected to bring long-awaited relief and a prospect
of a return to normal. Compared to most other European
countries, the Nordics have been among the most resilient
in withstanding the crisis. The contraction of GDP is
expected to have been much smaller than in most other
countries as a consequence of favourable export composi-
tion and smaller exposure to tourism related shocks.
In Finland, the economy is expected to have contracted
by 3.0 per cent in 2020, although the 2021 growth forecast
of 3.0 per cent will put the economy on track to pare most
of the losses towards the end of the year. As is the case
with the other Nordic countries, the developments in the
economy will largely depend on the pace of reopening
sectors affected by COVID-19 restrictions. As long as
the service sector is able to reopen, Finland’s economic
recovery this year will be robust. Private consumption,
boosted by recovering employment, will act as a driver
for growth. Exports and investments will benefit from
the global economic recovery, while the increased levels
of public debt present budgetary challenges moving
forward.
In Sweden, the economy is expected to have contracted
by 2.9 per cent in 2020, yet grow by a solid 4.0 per cent in
2021. Similar to Finland, the first quarter of 2021 is likely
to be challenging for the Swedish economy due to rising
COVID-19 infection rates and tighter restrictions. How-
ever, the growth rate is expected to pick up towards the
end of the year driven by pent-up demand, revitalisation
of export markets and positive spill over effects stemming
from fiscal policy measures taken across the globe. The
Riksbank is likely to keep its rates unchanged at zero and
continue its asset purchases to support the recovery. The
low interest rate environment has kept borrowing costs
down and has been one of the key factors in driving up
house prices to record levels.
In Norway, the economy is expected to have contracted
by 3.4 per cent in 2020 and expand by 2.7 per cent in
2021, putting the Norwegian economy on track to reach
pre-crisis GDP levels in early 2022. The Norwegian
economy has already regained most of the ground lost
during the initial COVID-19 shock in March last year,
during which mainland activity shrunk by a massive 14
per cent. The unemployment rate has already recovered
back to 4 per cent from the crisis high of 10 per cent and is
likely to continue to recover further in 2021. House prices
are likely to retain their upward momentum in the first
half of 2021 before gradually slowing down. Higher oil
prices and signals from the Norges Bank of upcoming rate
hikes will contribute to a stronger NOK going forward.
In Denmark, the economy is expected to have contracted
by 3.7 per cent in 2020, and the growth projection of 2.5
per cent for 2021 is more modest compared to Denmark’s
Nordic peers. However, Denmark’s public finances have
stayed relatively stable due to increased tax revenue from
returns on pension investments and actual stimulus
spending being noticeably smaller than the funds
allocated to the package. In 2021, the economic upswing
will be initially driven by rising private consumption
supported mainly by a sharp pick-up in the housing
market and accumulated savings. Later in the year,
Denmark’s key export markets are likely to grow, bringing
GDP back to pre-crisis levels in 2022.
Economic Environment
AUDITOR’S
REPORT
SAMPO PLC’S FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Sampo plc’s Notes to the Accounts
GROUP’S IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Group’s Notes to the Accounts
BOARD OF
DIRECTORS’ REPORT
7BOARD OF DIRECTORS’ REPORT 2020