Outlook

Interim Statement, 5 November 2025

Outlook for 2025

The third quarter saw strong underlying growth and margins development, while the benefit of benign weather and large claims was offset by low prior year development. Further, the Nordic region was hit by Storm Amy at the beginning of October, driving significant claims cost, and the Group remains exposed to potential further weather losses as the fourth quarter is very much a winter quarter. Hence, the outlook for 2025 remains unchanged from that given with the half-year 2025 results.

• Group insurance revenue: EUR 8.9–9.1 billion, representing growth of 6–9 per cent year-on-year.
• Group underwriting result: EUR 1,425–1,525 million, representing growth of 8–16 per cent year-on-year.

Any forecast of Sampo’s underwriting result is subject to estimates for weather claims, large claims, prior year development, and certain other items that may vary periodically and are out of Sampo’s control, meaning regular updates of the forecast are needed to reflect actual outcomes. Moderate deviations against normal and budget levels are typical on a quarterly basis, and Sampo intends to broadly reflect these in the outlook statement in its quarterly reports. In addition to the underwriting result, Sampo derives a material share of its earnings from returns on its investment portfolio and insurance finance income and expense, meaning changes in the outlook cannot be assumed to translate one-for-one into net profit. Sampo does not provide an outlook for its net financial result.

The outlook for 2025 is consistent with Sampo’s 2024–2026 financial targets of delivering a combined ratio below 85 per cent annually and operating EPS growth of more than 9 per cent annually on average. The outlook is subject to uncertainty related to occurrence and estimation of the cost of P&C claims, foreign exchange rates, and competitive dynamics. Revenue forecasts, in particular, are subject to competitive conditions, which may change rapidly in some areas, such as the UK motor insurance market. The revenue and underwriting profit figures in the outlook are based on currency exchange rates as of the latest reporting date.