Outlook

Interim Statement, 7 May 2025

Operating environment and assumptions

The operating environment in the markets in which Sampo operates remains broadly unchanged from the start of 2025, both in terms of competitive and claims cost development dynamics. The first quarter saw better than expected weather and large claims below budget but these do not change Sampo’s forward view of claims cost development.

Outlook for 2025

Following a favourable outcome on weather claims relative to normal levels, and, to a lesser degree, benign large claims and increased Topdanmark synergies, Sampo has decided to adjust its 2025 financial outlook to:

• Group insurance revenue: EUR 8.8–9.1 billion (from EUR 8.7–9.0 billion), representing growth of 5–9 per cent year-on-year.
• Group underwriting result: EUR 1,400–1,500 million (from EUR 1,350–1,450 million), representing growth of 6–14 per cent year-on-year.

Any forecast of Sampo’s underwriting result is subject to estimates for weather claims, large claims, prior year development, and certain other items that may vary periodically and are out of Sampo’s control, meaning regular updates of the forecast are needed to reflect actual outcomes. Moderate deviations against normal and budget levels are typical on a quarterly basis and Sampo intends to broadly reflect these in the outlook statement in its quarterly reports. In addition to the underwriting result, Sampo derives a material share of its earnings from returns on its investment portfolio and insurance finance income and expense, meaning changes in the outlook cannot be assumed to translate one-for-one into net profit. Sampo does not provide an outlook for its net financial result.

The outlook for 2025 is consistent with Sampo’s 2024–2026 financial targets of delivering a combined ratio below 85 per cent annually and operating EPS growth of more than 7 per cent annually on average.

The outlook is subject to uncertainty related to occurrence and estimation of the cost of P&C claims, foreign exchange rates, and competitive dynamics. Revenue forecasts, in particular, are subject to competitive conditions, which may change rapidly in some areas, such as the UK motor insurance market. The revenue and underwriting profit figures in the outlook are based on currency exchange rates as of the latest reporting date.