Outlook

Q1 2026 Interim Statement, 6 May 2026

Outlook for 2026

The start of the year saw wintry Nordic weather conditions, which was reflected in the initial outlook for 2026. However, materially more benign conditions towards the end of the quarter resulted in weather-related claims outcome being more favourable than anticipated. Furthermore, the first quarter saw fewer large claims than budgeted. With regard to top-line growth, the first quarter saw solid development in private lines, and corporate lines benefited from lower reinsurance prices. Taking these factors into consideration, Sampo has decided to adjust its outlook for 2026.

  • Group insurance revenue: EUR 9.6–9.8 billion (from EUR 9.5–9.8 billion), representing growth of 6–8 per cent year-on-year.
  • Group underwriting result: EUR 1,525–1,625 million (from EUR 1,485–1,600 million), representing growth of 3–9 per cent year-on-year.

Any forecast of Sampo’s underwriting result is subject to estimates for weather claims, large claims, prior year development, and certain other items that may vary periodically and are out of Sampo’s control. This means that regular updates of the forecast are needed to reflect actual outcomes. Moderate deviations against normal and budgeted levels are typical on a quarterly basis, and Sampo intends to broadly reflect these in the outlook statement in its quarterly reports. In addition to the underwriting result, Sampo derives a material share of its earnings from returns on its investment portfolio and insurance finance income and expense, meaning changes in the outlook cannot be assumed to translate one-for-one into net profit. Sampo does not provide an outlook for its net financial result.

The outlook for 2026 is consistent with Sampo’s 2024–2026 financial targets of delivering a combined ratio below 85 per cent annually and operating EPS growth of more than 9 per cent annually on average. The outlook is subject to uncertainty related to occurrence and estimation of the cost of P&C claims, foreign exchange rates, and competitive dynamics. Revenue forecasts, in particular, are subject to competitive conditions, which may change rapidly in some areas such as the UK motor insurance market. The revenue and underwriting profit figures in the outlook are based on currency exchange rates as of the latest reporting date.

Updated