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Latest Outlook

Interim Statement, 6 May 2020

Outlook for 2020

Sampo Group’s insurance businesses are expected to report good insurance technical results for 2020. The investment results are at this point in time more uncertain than usual. The mark-to-market results for 2020 are highly dependent on capital market developments, particularly in life insurance.

If P&C is expected to reach a combined ratio of 84 - 87 per cent in 2020.

With regard to Topdanmark reference is made to the profit forecast model that the company publishes quarterly.

Nordea’s contribution to the Group’s profit is expected to be significant.

The major risks and uncertainties to the Group in the near-term

In its current day-to-day business activities Sampo Group is exposed to various risks and uncertainties mainly through its separately managed major business units.

Major risks affecting the Group companies’ profitability and its variation are market, credit, insurance and operational risks that are quantified independently by the major business units. At the group level sources of risks are the same, but they are not directly additive because of diversification effects. 

Uncertainties in the form of major unforeseen events may have an immediate impact on the Group’s profitability. Identification of unforeseen events is easier than estimation of their probabilities, timing and potential outcomes. Currently the COVID-19 pandemic is causing significant negative effects on the Nordic economies. The duration of the measures taken to contain the virus and their effects on economic and capital market development are uncertain. There is also a number of widely identified macro-economic, political and other sources of uncertainty which can, in various ways, affect the financial services industry negatively.

Other sources of uncertainty are unforeseen structural changes in the business environment and already identified trends and potential wide-impact events. These external drivers may have long-term impacts on how business shall be conducted. Examples of already identified trends are technological development in areas such as artificial intelligence and digitalization, demographic changes and sustainability issues that may have profound effects on financial sector companies as well.

Updated 6 May 2020